Unlike many bowl games that have two teams with little or no history playing against each other, the Seminoles and the Irish have a background. This game is a rematch of the 1993 "Game 0f the Century" between the two schools, which was hyped up to the point that ESPN's College Gameday had their first ever live broadcast on the campus of Notre Dame prior to that day. In that famous game, the #1 Seminoles, lead by eventual Heisman winner Charlie Ward, traveled to South Bend to face the #2 Irish. The Irish controlled the game all day, and led 31-17 with only 1:39 to play, when Ward threw a touchdown on 4th and 20 that a ND defender tipped right into a Seminole WR's hands. With the score now 31-24, the Irish offense sputtered and when 3 and out. Ward led the Seminoles down to the ND 14 with only 3 seconds remaining, but the Irish defense stood their ground and held on for the win. However, the Seminoles would get the last laugh. After the Irish lost the next week to BC, the Seminoles retook the #1 spot in the polls and would go on to win the national championship. Notre Dame would finish as #2.
This years matchup features a pair of teams that had high hopes going into the season met with mediocre results for a pair of second year coaches in FSU's Jimbo Fisher and ND's Brian Kelly. Both teams feature offenses that can put up points, but also defenses that can shut down good offenses.
On offense, the Irish have but their quarterback controversy to bed until the offseason by naming Tommy Rees starter despite being pulled in the season finale versus Stanford. Rees has shown flashes of brilliance this year, with big games versus Air Force, Purdue, and Maryland, but has also shown the ability to be terrible, as shown versus Stanford and most of the Pitt game. However he has a quarterback rating of at least 100 in all but two games this year, and throughout the year has shown a great chemistry with leading Irish receivers Michael Floyd and Tyler Eifert. This will be a tough test for the sophomore quarterback, with Florida State boasting the fourth best point against per game average in the country, led by Senior OLB Nigel Bradham. The Seminoles have 36 sacks on the season, but the Irish have only allowed 13. The Irish offensive line must protect Tommy Rees, and to make sure the Seminoles can't just go after Rees all day, the Irish will need to get 1,000 yard rusher Cierre Wood rolling early. If the Irish can establish a run game and continue to protect Rees as well as they have all year, I expect Brian Kelly to put together a gameplan that will give the Irish a chance to win.
For the Seminole offense, it has been a mixed bag of a season. They have more than 30 points in 8 of 12 games, but in their last two, a 14-13 loss to Virginia and a 21-7 win over Florida, they have struggled. Versus Florida the Seminoles only mustered up 95 yards of offense, and Quarterback EJ Manuel was sacked four times. Virginia also kept the pressure on Manuel and FSU the game before. They sacked Manuel three times, and only allowed the Seminoles offense in the end zone once. To win, the Irish defense must continue to pressure Manuel. Big games must be had from Freshman DE Aaron Lynch and Junior LB Manti Te'o. Te'o, who recently announced he would return for his senior season next year, has the ability to shut down a run game by himself, and the Florida State running attack is not all that dynamic. Aaron Lynch has been fantastic in short bursts as a pass rushing specialist this year, and Brian Kelly will want to find places to get the talented freshman on the field to pressure Manuel this evening. If the Irish keep the pressure on Manuel, as was shown by Florida and Virginia.
These two teams are ranked very close together, as the Seminoles are at #25 in the AP polls, while the Irish are the top 'also receiving votes' team. They have similar structure in terms of their strong defenses and rising expectations under relatively new head coaches. These are two teams that could, with a little luck and some good recruiting and coaching, be in the National Championship talks in a few years. Today however, I pick the Irish to win a close, 24-20 game. I will post my reactions to the game and outlook for Notre Dame's offseason tomorrow.
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